Health policy debates often focus on short-term costs in the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO) 10-year window for scoring legislative proposals. While the CBO’s modeling serves immediate budget needs, it is not designed to capture many of the long-term consequences of health policy decisions, including effects on population health, labor markets and biomedical innovation.
In a new JAMA Health Forum Viewpoint, USC Schaeffer Center Co-Directors Dana Goldman and Erin Trish propose complementing CBO analyses with established modeling platforms, such as the Schaeffer Center’s Future Elderly Model, to evaluate:
- Long-term health outcomes, including longevity, disability and quality of life
- Broader economic effects on labor and insurance markets
- Biomedical innovation, including research and development investment and adoption of new technologies.
The bottom line: Policy decisions that shape innovation, access and care are being made based on analyses with limitations that may not be fully appreciated. Optimal policymaking requires a more comprehensive understanding of policy impacts beyond federal budgets.
